Paper ID

7b581c9ce200b031451f592478c7c34b5fc47898


Title

Integrate RL for real-time adaptability with MPC for optimization in maritime transportation.


Introduction

Problem Statement

Integrating reinforcement learning for real-time adaptability with model predictive control for optimization will improve prediction accuracy, measured by RMSE, and cost efficiency, measured by fuel consumption reduction, in maritime transportation compared to static models.

Motivation

Existing methods in maritime transportation often rely on static models that separate prediction and optimization processes, lacking the ability to adapt to real-time changes in environmental conditions and operational demands. These approaches fail to leverage the potential of integrating real-time prediction capabilities with optimization strategies to enhance both prediction accuracy and cost efficiency. Prior work has not extensively explored the combination of reinforcement learning for real-time adaptability with model predictive control for optimization in maritime contexts. This gap is critical because real-time adaptability can significantly improve decision-making processes in dynamic maritime environments, where conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.


Proposed Method

This research proposes a novel framework that integrates reinforcement learning (RL) for real-time adaptability with model predictive control (MPC) for optimization to enhance prediction accuracy and cost efficiency in maritime transportation. The RL component dynamically adjusts strategies based on real-time data, allowing the system to adapt to rapidly changing maritime conditions. Meanwhile, the MPC component optimizes control inputs to achieve desired outcomes while satisfying constraints. This integration is expected to improve prediction accuracy, measured by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and reduce fuel consumption, thereby enhancing cost efficiency. The RL component will be implemented using a deep reinforcement learning algorithm, such as Q-learning, to learn optimal policies through trial and error in simulated maritime environments. The MPC component will use a model-based approach to predict future states and optimize control inputs. This research addresses the gap in existing methods by combining real-time adaptability with optimization, providing a comprehensive solution for dynamic maritime environments. The expected outcome is a significant improvement in prediction accuracy and cost efficiency, making this approach a promising direction for future maritime transportation systems.

Background

Reinforcement Learning for Real-Time Adaptability: Reinforcement learning (RL) is a machine learning approach that enables models to learn optimal policies through trial and error in dynamic environments. In this research, RL will be used to dynamically adjust strategies based on real-time data, allowing the system to adapt to changing maritime conditions. The RL component will be implemented using a deep reinforcement learning algorithm, such as Q-learning, which learns policies by maximizing a reward function. This approach is chosen for its ability to handle non-stationary environments and provide real-time adaptability, which is crucial for maritime transportation where conditions change rapidly. The expected role of RL is to improve decision-making processes by enabling the system to adapt to new information and optimize strategies in real-time. The success of this variable will be assessed by its ability to improve prediction accuracy and cost efficiency, measured by RMSE and fuel consumption reduction, respectively.

Model Predictive Control for Optimization: Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a model-based optimization strategy that predicts future states and optimizes control inputs to achieve desired outcomes while satisfying constraints. In this research, MPC will be used to optimize control inputs in maritime transportation, such as ship speed and trajectory, to minimize fuel consumption and enhance cost efficiency. The MPC component will use a model-based approach to predict future states based on current data and optimize control inputs accordingly. This approach is chosen for its ability to handle complex control problems and provide optimal solutions in dynamic environments. The expected role of MPC is to enhance cost efficiency by optimizing control inputs to minimize fuel consumption. The success of this variable will be assessed by its ability to reduce fuel consumption compared to static models.

Implementation

The proposed method integrates reinforcement learning (RL) for real-time adaptability with model predictive control (MPC) for optimization in maritime transportation. The RL component will be implemented using a deep reinforcement learning algorithm, such as Q-learning, to learn optimal policies through trial and error in simulated maritime environments. The RL model will be trained on historical maritime data to learn policies that maximize a reward function, which reflects the goals of the maritime operation, such as minimizing fuel consumption or avoiding collisions. The RL model will dynamically adjust strategies based on real-time data, allowing the system to adapt to changing maritime conditions. The MPC component will use a model-based approach to predict future states and optimize control inputs, such as ship speed and trajectory, to minimize fuel consumption and enhance cost efficiency. The MPC model will be implemented using a mathematical model of the maritime system and will solve trajectory optimization problems online. The integration of RL and MPC will be achieved by using the RL model to provide real-time adaptability and the MPC model to optimize control inputs. The RL model will provide feedback to the MPC model, allowing it to adjust control inputs based on real-time data. The expected outcome is a significant improvement in prediction accuracy and cost efficiency, making this approach a promising direction for future maritime transportation systems.


Experiments Plan

Operationalization Information

Please implement an experiment to test the hypothesis that integrating reinforcement learning (RL) for real-time adaptability with model predictive control (MPC) for optimization will improve prediction accuracy and cost efficiency in maritime transportation compared to static models.

EXPERIMENT OVERVIEW

This experiment will develop and evaluate a novel framework that combines deep reinforcement learning with model predictive control for maritime vessel route optimization. The RL component will provide real-time adaptability to changing conditions, while the MPC component will optimize control inputs (speed, heading) to minimize fuel consumption while satisfying constraints.

PILOT EXPERIMENT SETTINGS

Implement a global variable PILOT_MODE that can be set to 'MINI_PILOT', 'PILOT', or 'FULL_EXPERIMENT':

Start by running the MINI_PILOT, then if successful, run the PILOT. Stop after the PILOT is complete - do not run the FULL_EXPERIMENT (this will be manually triggered after human verification).

DATA REQUIREMENTS

  1. Use the AIS (Automatic Identification System) dataset for maritime vessel trajectories. For the pilot experiments, select a small subset of clean, complete trajectories.
  2. Use historical weather data corresponding to the same time periods as the AIS data.
  3. Create a simulated maritime environment that incorporates:
  4. Vessel dynamics (speed, heading, position)
  5. Weather conditions (wind, waves, currents)
  6. Fuel consumption model based on vessel characteristics and environmental conditions

IMPLEMENTATION DETAILS

1. Maritime Environment Simulation

2. Baseline Models

Implement three baseline models for comparison:
- Baseline 1: Static route planning with fixed speed profile (no adaptation to conditions)
- Baseline 2: Pure MPC approach without RL integration (optimization without learning)
- Baseline 3: Pure RL approach without MPC integration (learning without explicit optimization)

3. Experimental Model (RL+MPC Integration)

Implement the integrated RL+MPC approach with the following components:

RL Component:

MPC Component:

Integration Mechanism:

4. Training Procedure

  1. Initialize the RL policy randomly
  2. For each episode:
  3. Select a random vessel trajectory from the training set
  4. Initialize the vessel state and weather conditions
  5. For each timestep:
    • Get high-level guidance from the RL policy
    • Use MPC to optimize detailed control inputs
    • Apply controls to the environment and observe next state, fuel consumption
    • Store experience in replay buffer
    • Update RL policy periodically using experiences from replay buffer
  6. Evaluate performance periodically on validation trajectories

5. Evaluation Metrics

Measure and report the following metrics for all models:
1. Prediction Accuracy: RMSE between predicted and actual vessel positions
2. Fuel Efficiency: Total fuel consumption for completing the trajectory
3. Constraint Satisfaction: Percentage of timesteps where all constraints are satisfied
4. Computational Efficiency: Average time required for decision-making

ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS

  1. Compare the performance of the experimental model (RL+MPC) against all baselines using the metrics above
  2. Perform statistical significance testing (t-tests or bootstrap resampling) to determine if differences are statistically significant
  3. Analyze how performance varies with different weather conditions and vessel types
  4. Visualize vessel trajectories, fuel consumption profiles, and decision-making processes

OUTPUT REQUIREMENTS

  1. Generate detailed logs of all experiments, including hyperparameters, training progress, and evaluation results
  2. Create visualizations of vessel trajectories for all models on the same test cases
  3. Produce summary tables comparing all models across all metrics
  4. Generate plots showing the learning curves of the RL component
  5. Provide a final report summarizing the findings, including whether the hypothesis was supported

Please implement this experiment following best practices for reproducible research, including random seed control, proper train/validation/test splits, and thorough documentation of all implementation details.

End Note:

The source paper is Paper 0: Task-based End-to-end Model Learning in Stochastic Optimization (351 citations, 2017). This idea draws upon a trajectory of prior work, as seen in the following sequence: Paper 1 --> Paper 2 --> Paper 3 --> Paper 4. The progression of research from the source paper to the related papers demonstrates a clear trajectory towards integrating prediction and optimization in various domains, particularly in transportation and logistics. Each paper builds upon the previous by applying the core concept of aligning learning with task objectives to different contexts, showcasing the versatility and effectiveness of this approach. However, while these papers focus on specific applications or introduce new methodologies, there remains an opportunity to explore the integration of prediction and optimization in a broader range of decision-making scenarios, particularly those involving dynamic and uncertain environments. By addressing this gap, we can advance the field by developing more robust and adaptable frameworks that can be applied to a wider array of complex systems.
The initial trend observed from the progression of related work highlights a consistent research focus. However, the final hypothesis proposed here is not merely a continuation of that trend — it is the result of a deeper analysis of the hypothesis space. By identifying underlying gaps and reasoning through the connections between works, the idea builds on, but meaningfully diverges from, prior directions to address a more specific challenge.


References

  1. Task-based End-to-end Model Learning in Stochastic Optimization (2017)
  2. Task-based End-to-end Model Learning (2017)
  3. A smart predict-then-optimize method for targeted and cost-effective maritime transportation (2023)
  4. Stochastic optimization model for ship inspection planning under uncertainty in maritime transportation (2023)
  5. A Surrogate Piecewise Linear Loss Function for Contextual Stochastic Linear Programs in Transport (2025)
  6. Federated Learning for Maritime Environments: Use Cases, Experimental Results, and Open Issues (2022)
  7. An AIS-based deep learning framework for regional ship behavior prediction (2021)
  8. A NOVEL REINFORCEMENT LEARNING FRAMEWORK FOR PROPULSION SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION (2024)
  9. TPTrans: Vessel Trajectory Prediction Model Based on Transformer Using AIS Data (2024)
  10. From Data to Knowledge to Action: A Global Enabler for the 21st Century (2020)
  11. Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Urban Transportation Problems (2018)
  12. Learning Model Predictive Controllers for Real-Time Ride-Hailing Vehicle Relocation and Pricing Decisions (2021)
  13. RideAgent: An LLM-Enhanced Optimization Framework for Automated Taxi Fleet Operations (2025)
  14. Foundation Models for Environmental Science: A Survey of Emerging Frontiers (2025)
  15. Policy Search for Model Predictive Control With Application to Agile Drone Flight (2021)